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2024 U.S. Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions by PGA golf model that's hit 12 majors

SportsLine's proven model simulated the U.S. Open 2024 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks

Justin Thomas is hoping his prior experience at Pinehurst No. 2 will lead to success at the 2024 U.S. Open. The Kentucky native got his first look at the difficult North Carolina course as a 21-year-old at the 2014 U.S. Open, one year after he turned pro. Since then, Thomas has won 15 career events, including two major victories. He is coming off a T8 finish at the PGA Championship and hoping his current form will help him in a competitive 2024 U.S. Open field. Thomas is a 35-1 longshot in the latest 2024 U.S. Open odds, while world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the 11-4 favorite.

Should you back a longshot like Thomas, or is picking one of the 2024 U.S. Open contenders like Scheffler a safer bet? Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or finalizing U.S. Open props and U.S. Open Pick 6 or PrizePicks entries, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now with the U.S. Open 2024 approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open: Xander Schauffele, one of the top favorites and the most recent major winner at the PGA Championship, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Schauffele finally picked up his first major win in 28 tries when he held off Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland at Valhalla in May.

That has vaulted him up in the PGA odds as he's now the co-second favorite in the U.S. Open 2024 odds. However, his overall track record doesn't justify that kind of status as he has just three top-five finishes in majors since 2019. He also was shaky at The Memorial over the weekend, shooting two rounds of 73 or higher to fall out of contention. The model has found better values to utilize in 2024 U.S. Open bets. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Brooks Koepka, a 35-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 2023 PGA Championship winner likes to elevate his game at major events, especially at the U.S. Open. Koepka is the last golfer to successfully defend a U.S. Open title, winning the third major of the season in 2017 and again in 2018.

Koepka has also played well at Pinehurst No. 2 in the past, finishing T4 when the U.S. Open was last held there in 2014. The 34-year-old didn't finish in the top 20 at either the Masters or the PGA Championship this year, but his experience at Pinehurst and his prior major success give him a stronger chance to win than his long odds entail. See who else to back here.

How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. It's also targeting two triple-digit longshots in its best bets. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.

2024 U.S. Open odds, field

Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets, and predictions here

Scottie Scheffler 11-4

Rory McIlroy 10-1

Xander Schauffele 10-1

Bryson DeChambeau 10-1

Viktor Hovland 12-1

Ludvig Aberg 14-1

Collin Morikawa 14-1

Brooks Koepka 20-1

Patrick Cantlay 28-1

Cameron Smith 28-1

Max Homa 28-1

Wyndham Clark 33-1

Justin Thomas 35-1

Hideki Matsuyama 35-1

Cameron Young 40-1

Dustin Johnson 40-1

Jordan Spieth 40-1

Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1

Sahith Theegala 45-1

Tom Kim 45-1

Tony Finau 45-1

Tommy Fleetwood 45-1

Jason Day 45-1

Sungjae Im 50-1

Min Woo Lee 50-1

Tyrrell Hatton 50-1

Si Woo Kim 55-1

Will Zalatoris 55-1

Shane Lowry 60-1

Corey Conners 60-1

Sam Burns 60-1

Dean Burmester 60-1

Keegan Bradley 60-1

Byeong-Hun An 70-1

Brian Harman 75-1

Patrick Reed 80-1

Sepp Straka 90-1

Stephan Jaeger 90-1

David Puig 90-1

Russell Henley 90-1

Adrian Meronk 90-1

Jake Knapp 100-1

Justin Rose 100-1

Billy Horschel 100-1

Chris Kirk 100-1

Aaron Rai 100-1

Nicolai Hojgaard 100-1

Thomas Detry 125-1

Eric Cole 125-1

Phil Mickelson 125-1

Rickie Fowler 125-1

Tom McKibbin 125-1

Akshay Bhatia 125-1

Tiger Woods 125-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1

Austin Eckroat 150-1

Victor Perez 150-1

Taylor Pendrith 150-1

Daniel Berger 150-1

Denny McCarthy 150-1

Cameron Davis 150-1

Emiliano Grillo 175-1

Taylor Moore 175-1

Ryan Fox 175-1

Tom Hoge 175-1

Harris English 175-1

Eugenio Chacarra 175-1

Adam Schenk 175-1

Adam Hadwin 175-1

Erik Van Rooyen 200-1

Nick Taylor 200-1

Kurt Kitayama 200-1

Rikuya Hoshino 200-1

J.T. Poston 200-1

Mackenzie Hughes 200-1

Beau Hossler 200-1

Lucas Glover 200-1

Seamus Power 225-1

Grant Forrest 225-1

Adam Svensson 225-1

Davis Thompson 225-1

Harry Higgs 250-1

Gary Woodland 250-1

Mark Hubbard 250-1

Matthieu Pavon 250-1

Richard Mansell 250-1

Webb Simpson 250-1

Greyson Sigg 250-1

Ben Kohles 300-1

Brendon Todd 300-1

Tim Widing 300-1

Sam Bairstow 300-1

Peter Malnati 300-1

Sam Bennett 300-1

Matteo Manassero 300-1

Gordon Sargent 300-1

Jason Scrivener 300-1

Justin Lower 350-1

Casey Jarvis 350-1

Chesson Hadley 350-1

Nicolas Echavarria 350-1

Nick Dunlap 350-1

Zac Blair 350-1

Frankie Capan III 400-1

Max Greyserman 400-1

Matt Kuchar 400-1

S.H. Kim 400-1

Robert Rock 400-1

Chris Petefish 400-1

Rico Hoey 400-1

Wells Williams 500-1

Sung Kang 500-1

Charles Reiter 500-1

Federik Kjettrup 500-1

Ashton McCulloch 500-1

Ryo Ishikawa 500-1

Isaiah Salinda 500-1

Mcclure Meissner 500-1

Brandon Wu 500-1

Jackson Buchanan 500-1

Michael McGowan 500-1

Jim Herman 500-1

Brian Campbell 500-1

Logan McAllister 500-1

Carson Schaake 500-1

John Chin 500-1

Benjamin James 500-1

Omar Morales 500-1

Luke Clanton 500-1

Neal Shipley 500-1

Gunnar Broin 500-1

Stewart Hagestad 500-1

Carter Jenkins 500-1

Francisco Molinari 500-1

Brandon Robinson Thompson 500-1

Taisei Shimizu 500-1

Chris Naegel 500-1

Willie Mack III 500-1

Hiroshi Tai 500-1

Parker Bell 500-1

Takumi Kanaya 500-1

Colin Prater 500-1

Andrew Svoboda 500-1

Bryan Kim 500-1

Santiago De La Fuente 500-1

Riki Kawamoto 500-1

Joey Vrzich 500-1

Edoardo Molinari 500-1

Martin Kaymer 750-1